Dow and Metals
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
We are shorting the Dow at 10750 with stops at 10890. The market appears weak closing below the 10day moving average.
Silver has been strong for the last couple of weeks. The recent pull back presents an opportunity for us metals bulls. We are buy may silver at $7.35 with stops below $7.12.
For more info call or e-mail.
Nick Repke
Strategic Futures and Options
nrepke@strategicfo.com800-822-7734
Grains
We were stopped out of our short beans last week at $5.52 In front of a 3 day weekend I did not feel that bad about it.... After the sharp run up today I would not be afraid to continue playing the beans from the short side, just remember to keep stops in at all times. My noon weather model has 70%-80% coverage on 1 -2 inches of rain right in the heart of the dry area in southern Brazil starting Thursday night lasting through Sunday...... Not a bullish forecast...
You may feel like your feeding the beast but the beast is going to choke to death!
Any questions or if you want to debate my theory give me a call
Jason Godfrey
Iowa Futures Corp
888-777-1442
jason@iowafutures.com
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Wheat and Lumber comments
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Sell March Wheat at 2.93 stop, coonsider a stop loss at 3.02 1/2
Buy May lumber 383 stop, consider a stop loss on at 371
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Hogs, Dollar Index, and Soybean Ideas
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Sell May Soybeans 5.53 or Better with a stop loss on close over 5.60
Sell April Hogs 7385 stop, consider a stop loss on a close over 7485
Buy March Dollar Index 8390 stop, consider a stop loss on a close below 8335
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Short Term Trade Ideas for Thursday
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Sell April Hogs 7450, consider a stop loss above 7580
Sell March Yen at 9555, consider a stop loss above 9610
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Sell soybeans
Would look to sell March beans in the $5.35 - $5.40 area and stop at $5.52
We have had nothing but a case of short covering caused by some dry weather in Brazil. Even if S.A. production is cut back because of the dry weather, world and U.S. supplies should keep a lid on this market. Still plenty of downside as I look for a sell off into the gut of the S.A harvest which should really get rolling here in a couple weeks..
Farmers cant get last years $10 price out of their heads and its going to cost them!
Questions or comments? Call me
Jason Godfrey
Iowa Futures Corp.
888-777-1442
jason@iowafutures.comYOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Short term trade ideas for Tuesday
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Sell March Wheat 3.03 1/2, stop-loss close only 3.05 1/2
Buy April Cattle 8655, stop-loss close only 8590
Buy March Heating Oil 1.2650, stop-loss close below 1.20
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS
Short term trade ideas for Tuesday
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Sell March Wheat 3.03 1/2, stop-loss close only 3.05 1/2
Buy April Cattle 8655, stop-loss close only 8590
Buy March Heating Oil 1.2650, stop-loss close below 1.20
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS
Copper, Natural Gas, Heating Oil Comments
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
It is my opinion that many traders think there are only two trends, higher and lower. In my view there is a third and that is sideways. I define a sideways market as a point where supply and demand have reached near equilibrium and the price lacks the ability to break out to the up or downside. Many traders shy away from this type of market, and that in my opinion is a mistake. Just because a market is sideways does not mean there are no trading opportunities. Let us look at the Copper, Natural Gas , and Heating oil.
It is my opinion that Copper has been in a sideways action since late November, Natural Gas since Early January, and Heating Oil Since late November. It has been my experience that most sideways markets have two levels, a secondary trading range or a narrow range, within the primary or wider range. Less risk adverse traders can take a look at trading the primary ranges, while more risk adverse traders can look at trading the narrower ranges.
If you look at March Copper I believe you will see a primary range between 1.4560 and 1.3375, and a secondary range between 1.4430 and 1.37. March Natural Gas in my view would have a Primary range between 6.67 and 6.00, while the secondary would be between 610 and 647. March Heating oil I see as a primary range between 1.410 and 1.20, while the secondary wouold be between 1.3550, and 1.2650.
For more information regarding the trading of a sideways market call me at 1-877-304-1369, or e-mail me at lee@efggrp.com
Update Dow and Canadian Dollar
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
The Canadian Dollar made a nice turn today use your stops to lock in profits as we go higher. We are locking in $500 if you bought yesterday at 79.90 or better.
Stay short the Dow with stops at 10760...The NASDAQ is showing weakness.
Nick Repke
Strategic Futures and Options
800-822-7734
nrepke@strategicfo.com
Short term Dow and Canadian dollar
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
We are shorting the Dow Jones today at 10710 with stops at 10760.
Canadian Dollar buy at 79.90 with stops below 79.45
Taking profits on short term trade is at the discretion of each individual.
Nick Repke
President
Strategic Futures and Options
800-822-7734
nrepke@strategicfo.com
Short Term Wheat and Hog Recommendations
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Buy March Wheat 2.95 stop, consider a stop loss below 2.87
Buy April Hogs 7490 stop, consider a stop loss below 7245
Buy April Gold 410, consider a stop loss on a close below 400
Sell March Copper at 1.4200, consider a stop loss on a close above 1.4550
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Short Term Trade Recommendations
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Buy March Sugar at 9.00 stop, consider a stop loss below 870
Buy April Gold 410, consider a stop loss on a close below 400
Sell March Copper at 1.4200, consider a stop loss on a close above 1.4550
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Strategy update and let's fence in them hogs!
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Jobs data came out this morning expecting 200,000 new jobs. The actual number was 133,000. 30-year bonds and 10 year notes screamed higher on the news. This is good news for our long 10-year note calls and bad news for our long 30-year bond puts. Keep in mind, we're long premium. We should still have a good shot at a favorable trade as long as the market makes a significant move in one direction or the other. We will be looking to sell out of the money calls against our long t-note call position if the market extends into the mid 114 level. I will keep you appraised.
The new idea is to create a fence strategy in the hog market. Corn futures are trading at or around $2.00. Soybean meal futures are trading at or around $150.00 per ton. June Hog futures are currently trading at $76.25. This won't last. Something's got to give. It is going to become increasingly difficult to maintain this price level in hogs given the cheap feed availability. The monthly picture looks like a pennant that is breaking down. This formation suggests a potential objective of $42.00 in nearby futures. That's why I want to recommend a fence in the June Hogs. Buy an out of the money put and sell an out of the money call. I suggest buying a June hog $66.00 put (pay approx. $1.25 per contract) and selling a June Hog $82.00 call (receive approx. $1.25 per contract) at the market. This gives us the right to a short position at $66.00 or the obligation to a short position at $82.00. The futures market will determine which one of these comes into play. You are short options, so there is a margin requirement. The current span requirement is $896.00 initial and $719.00 maintenance per contract.
Have a great weekend! Go Eagles!!
Steve
Coffee Thoughts from Tony Woods
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Hello everyone. I am Tony Woods from International Futures Group and I would like to share my thoughts on the Coffee market.
A tight supply of higher quality coffee should keep futures in an uptrend into the spring. In my opinion breaks are buying opportunities as buyers extend coverage and fund traders continue to build a record high net long position. The market is supported by anticipated supply draw downs and a smaller harvest. Brazil exports are lagging by a third and, and decimated Central American harvests cannot make up the difference. This will likely lead to tighter world supplies and have U.S. purchasers of premium coffee looking to buy more beans.
Here is a Tony Woods Special Trade Recommendation:
Buy May Coffee at 107.00, with a target around 116.00 with a stop loss order on a close below 105.00.
For more information call me at 1-800-786-4475, or email me at
tony@ifgfutures.com, please check out our website at
www.ifgfutures.com.
Hope to hear from you,
Tony
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
A few ideas and a SPECIAL OFFER
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
In my weekly recommendations issued on Sunday night last I suggested a sale of March Soybeans at 5.18, which would have been filled had the recommendation been followed. I still like being short Soybeans, and even suggest one might want to add to the short position or initiate an initial position if Soybeans rally back to 5.13.
I would consider a stop loss on Thursday 2/3/05 close above 5.47. My initial target for Soybeans is in the 4.85 area, more aggressive traders may want to consider 4.75.
SPECIAL OFFER: THE FIRST 5 INDIVIDUALS THAT REGISTER FOR THE FREE MARKET COMMENTARY WILL RECEIVE A FREE COPY OF THE EXTREMELY POPULAR BOOK "HOT COMMODITIES" BY JIM ROGERS.
update on the 10 year note commentary
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
The June 10-year note 113 calls were offered @ 40 this morning, so we can assume our fill at that price. Once again, that is 40/64's and each 64th is $15.625, so we can assume we spent $625 per contract before commission and fees. Please note that the electronic market continues to gain a liquidity advantage over the open outcry market both in futures and options.
I also would like to respond to one of our fellow bloggers that came in with a excellant comment about a yield curve suggestion. He agreed with the bullish bias to the 10 year notes, but also wondered about the wisdom of selling the 30 year bonds against the bullish 10 year note position. To paraphrase one of my favorite commercials,.....Brilliant! Short term instruments have been losing to longer term instruments steadily since April of 2004. We would be admittedly picking a bottom in the trend, but I think this is a good bet given that we are at/or near 17 year lows in this particular spread. Since we bought the June 10 year note, 113 calls yesterday, let's not get too fancy. I suggest buying the June 30 year bond 110 puts. They are currently trading at 47/64's, or approximately $735 before commissions and fees. If this spread starts to work favorably, we will look to minimize our risk by legging into the sale of out of the money calls and out of the money puts against our existing long premium postions.
Happy trading!
Steve
