YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Welcome to the virgin voyage of the Lee Gaus Weblog. Feel free to ask questions, and visit the web sites of the commodity offices listed to the right. The owners of these firms will offer their insight and answer questions posed to them. So with all this in mind let us look a three markets I find to be of more then usual interest.
MARCH SOYBEANS: The March Bean market using a normal reading of my models suggest a sell signal has been given. If that is so then why am I suggesting a buy at XXXX price (the exact price is provided in my weekly comments of which you will need to subscribe. Don't worry they are free). Because the model that has signaled the initial sell signal is on the verge of reversing again with in the next two weeks. If this model does reverse, we will have front run the model by entering the market earlier then normal, and if it fails we will have risked XXXX in this front running effort. The possible profit of this trade can be greater if we are right, BUT THE POTENTIAL LOSS CAN ALSO BE GREATER IF WE ARE WRONG.
APRIL CATTLE: All three models of April Cattle have turned higher. I am looking at "critical trend determining days" on or about 1/11, and then 1/31. If a major trend change is to occur I believe the chances are the greatest during these "trend determining time periods." With all this in mind I am suggesting a purchase of April Cattle at XXXX, with a stop at XXXX.
Freebee: Buy March Wheat/Sell March Corn at 97, consider a stop loss below 83 on a Thursday close!
Rememeber: YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE
DECEMBER 27, 2004, 1350 HRS. CST Here is hoping that you all had a Happy Trading Monday.
We changed our prices on the featured commodites from Sunday nights article. Subscribe to the letter to see the price changes it is free. We were filled on the wheat/corn spread.
Commodities that are worth watching Tuesday for possible action on Wednesday are: Cocoa and Coffee.
I recommended a short March Heating Oil position back on 12/8. While we took a pretty good beating for a whille we were never stopped out and now the market turned on Monday. If you took the Heating Oil recommendation and are still short I suggest that you: 1) If you have had your fill of this trade you can consider taking profit at 1.1950, and if you still have stomach left for this trade you might want to consider a 1.1450 level to liquidate.
Just to make sure I have the handle on the WH-CH5 spread, I show the 5 week down trending. The 10 wk moving average @ 103.25 and a Fri close of 125 to change the trend. Am I close?. Thanks for your help. Also your 2 books were very helpful.
Rememeber: YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Hi Guys, My name's Steve Erdman, Lee's partner. I have a recommendation in the options on futures market that I think you should consider. I think you should take a hard look at buying a lottery ticket. The nearby Eurocurrency has just made a 2 year run from a low made in January 2002 at 85.54 to the current price of 136.28 during today's trade. To put this in perspective, this is over 5000 points @ $12.50 a point! This move was worth over $62,500 per contract if you would have been long for the entire move. It is my opinion that this type of extreme should be faded with the purchase of a put option. A put option gives you the right, but not the obligation to a short position in the underlying futures market. You don't need to know anything about world economics to consider this strategy. You are just fading the prevailing trend when it is on an extreme. That's why I call it a lottery ticket. For more specific information, email me at serdman@refco.com
Bruce, I agree with the down trend in the 5 week, and the 10 week moving average at 1.033, but I show the turn value of the LTM to be 1.07 or higher this Friday.
Rememeber: YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS
Goooood afternoon everyone, Lee here.
The March Heating oil did dip below the 1.1950 level we spoke about yesterday. Now we will just have to see if the 1.1450 level is possible.
My recommendation to Buy April Cattle/Sell April Hogs would have been filled today if you would have entered the order, along with buying the Euro March Currency/Selling the March Aussie. A full listing can be found by subscribing to the Weekly/Daily letter which is free of charge.
Short-term trade recommendations for Wednesday Dec. 29, 2004:
Buy March Cocoa 1588 Stop, use a stop loss at 1545 stop Sell March Coffee at 105.90 stop, use a stop loss at 110.80 stop.
Tomorrow industry veteran Thomas Fritz will be commenting, I suggest you log in to read what Tom has to say.
9 Comments:
Welcome to the Lee Gaus Weblog, where ideas are shared and discussed.
YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Welcome to the virgin voyage of the Lee Gaus Weblog. Feel free to ask questions, and visit the web sites of the commodity offices listed to the right. The owners of these firms will offer their insight and answer questions posed to them. So with all this in mind let us look a three markets I find to be of more then usual interest.
MARCH SOYBEANS: The March Bean market using a normal reading of my models suggest a sell signal has been given. If that is so then why am I suggesting a buy at XXXX price (the exact price is provided in my weekly comments of which you will need to subscribe. Don't worry they are free). Because the model that has signaled the initial sell signal is on the verge of reversing again with in the next two weeks. If this model does reverse, we will have front run the model by entering the market earlier then normal, and if it fails we will have risked XXXX in this front running effort. The possible profit of this trade can be greater if we are right, BUT THE POTENTIAL LOSS CAN ALSO BE GREATER IF WE ARE WRONG.
APRIL CATTLE: All three models of April Cattle have turned higher. I am looking at "critical trend determining days" on or about 1/11, and then 1/31. If a major trend change is to occur I believe the chances are the greatest during these "trend determining time periods." With all this in mind I am suggesting a purchase of April Cattle at XXXX, with a stop at XXXX.
Freebee:
Buy March Wheat/Sell March Corn at 97, consider a stop loss below 83 on a Thursday close!
Rememeber: YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE
DECEMBER 27, 2004, 1350 HRS. CST
Here is hoping that you all had a Happy Trading Monday.
We changed our prices on the featured commodites from Sunday nights article. Subscribe to the letter to see the price changes it is free. We were filled on the wheat/corn spread.
Commodities that are worth watching Tuesday for possible action on Wednesday are: Cocoa and Coffee.
I recommended a short March Heating Oil position back on 12/8. While we took a pretty good beating for a whille we were never stopped out and now the market turned on Monday. If you took the Heating Oil recommendation and are still short I suggest that you:
1) If you have had your fill of this trade you can consider taking profit at 1.1950, and if you still have stomach left for this trade you might want to consider a 1.1450 level to liquidate.
test
Lee
Just to make sure I have the handle on the WH-CH5 spread, I show the 5 week down trending. The 10 wk moving average @ 103.25 and a Fri close of 125 to change the trend. Am I close?. Thanks for your help. Also your 2 books were very helpful.
bruce
Will reply this evening. All my model work is at my house.
Lee
Rememeber: YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Hi Guys, My name's Steve Erdman, Lee's partner. I have a recommendation in the options on futures market that I think you should consider. I think you should take a hard look at buying a lottery ticket. The nearby Eurocurrency has just made a 2 year run from a low made in January 2002 at 85.54 to the current price of 136.28 during today's trade. To put this in perspective, this is over 5000 points @ $12.50 a point! This move was worth over $62,500 per contract if you would have been long for the entire move. It is my opinion that this type of extreme should be faded with the purchase of a put option. A put option gives you the right, but not the obligation to a short position in the underlying futures market. You don't need to know anything about world economics to consider this strategy. You are just fading the prevailing trend when it is on an extreme. That's why I call it a lottery ticket. For more specific information, email me at serdman@refco.com
Bruce,
I agree with the down trend in the 5 week, and the 10 week moving average at 1.033, but I show the turn value of the LTM to be 1.07 or higher this Friday.
Lee
Rememeber: YOU MUST ALWAYS BE AWARE THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT RISK INVOLVED IN TRADING FUTURES AND/OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND ARE NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS
Goooood afternoon everyone, Lee here.
The March Heating oil did dip below the 1.1950 level we spoke about yesterday. Now we will just have to see if the 1.1450 level is possible.
My recommendation to Buy April Cattle/Sell April Hogs would have been filled today if you would have entered the order, along with buying the Euro March Currency/Selling the March Aussie. A full listing can be found by subscribing to the Weekly/Daily letter which is free of charge.
Short-term trade recommendations for Wednesday Dec. 29, 2004:
Buy March Cocoa 1588 Stop, use a stop loss at 1545 stop
Sell March Coffee at 105.90 stop, use a stop loss at 110.80 stop.
Tomorrow industry veteran Thomas Fritz will be commenting, I suggest you log in to read what Tom has to say.
Have a great evening!
Lee
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